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Summary Leaf‐out in temperate forests is a critical transition point each spring and advancing with global change. The mechanism linking phenological variation to external cues is poorly understood. Nonstructural carbohydrate (NSC) availability may be key.Here, we use branch cuttings from northern red oak (Quercus rubra) and measure NSCs throughout bud development in branch tissue. Given genes and environment influence phenology, we placed branches in an arrayed factorial experiment (three temperatures × two photoperiods, eight genotypes) to examine their impact on variation in leaf‐out timing and corresponding NSCs.Despite significant differences in leaf‐out timing between treatments, NSC patterns were much more consistent, with all treatments and genotypes displaying similar NSC concentrations across phenophases. Notably, the moderate and hot temperature treatments reached the same NSC concentrations and phenophases at the same growing degree days (GDD), but 20 calendar days apart, while the cold treatment achieved only half the GDD of the other two.Our results suggest that NSCs are coordinated with leaf‐out and could act as a molecular clock, signaling to cells the passage of time and triggering leaf development to begin. This link between NSCs and budburst is critical for improving predictions of phenological timing.